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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: U.S. bonds suffered the worst selling in more than 20 years, and the Federal Reserve Board has put forward a response plan." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The dollar index weakened on Monday, and investors are evaluating the dollar's safe-haven position amid the backdrop of US President Trump's ever-changing trade policy raising concerns about economic growth. The U.S. bond market has experienced the most tragic selling since 2001.
Affected by the Trump administration's tariff policies, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared 48.5 basis points to 4.494% last week, the largest weekly increase since the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001.Although U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, the dollar fell, indicating that the dollar has been "decoupled" from U.S. Treasury yields, triggering speculation that investors are withdrawing funds from the United States, worrying about the long-term impact of trade tariffs on the economy. "The policy making is so confusing that it is difficult to predict the direction of interest rates or economic development in the next 24 hours," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "This uncertainty is unbearable for most companies in international trade. The question is how quickly the impact will affect the consumer side. From the momentum, the market's view of the U.S. economic outlook is bleak, and this sentiment is most directly reflected in the money market." "We expect the weakness to continue because even with the news of a suspension of tariffs, the risks to global economic growth are still high. We also believe that this dollar weakness is mainly due to the ruling of the U.S. dollar."American policymakers are increasingly losing confidence and the negative impact of policy uncertainty on the U.S. economy. "
MacroHive CEO Bilal Hafeez pointed out that the dollar's decline last week reached "four standard deviations", and it is common sense to speculate that there should be a rebound opportunity. But he also warned that if the current situation reflects a structural change similar to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, then all inferences will no longer apply.
Yong Seok-yeo was suspected of launching a civil unrest case for the first trial, Yoon Seok-yeo denied it completely.
China's exports rose 12.4% year-on-year to $313.9B in March, far higher than the 4.4% expectation, and a sharp increase from the 2.3% year-on-year growth from January to February.
It is particularly noteworthy that shipments to the United States rose by 9.18% year-on-year, which may be due to early loading ahead of tariff tensions. Exports to ASEAN also increased, up 11.6% year-on-year, and double-digit growth to key partners such as Thailand (27.8% year-on-year) and Vietnam (18.9% year-on-year). However, as a key intermediary to China's export supply chain, Vietnam is now facing pressure to strengthen control over the source of goods and materials. According to a Foreign Ministry document, Hanoi authorities are urging companies to combat fraud of origin to avoid punitive tariffs from the United States, highlighting the increasingly stringent scrutiny of Chinese goods transported through third countries.
At the same time, Strong exports are in sharp contrast to the year-on-year decline of -4.3%, resulting in a trade surplus of more than expected by $102.6B.
European Market
European Trade Commissioner is in talks in Washington; US National Economic Commission Director Hassett: We have made huge progress in tariff negotiations with the EU.
Trump said it is considering some measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains from Mexico, and recently helped Apple CEO Cook; the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation into semiconductors, drugs, etc., and will withdraw from the tomato tariff suspension agreement reached with Mexico in 2019.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent: No evidence Indicates that sovereign investors are selling U.S. assets. There is a toolbox to deal with bond market fluctuations, but it is far from when used. The successor of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be interviewed in the fall.
Federal Director Waller: In the large-scale tariff scenario, if there is a significant economic slowdown, interest rate cuts tend to be earlier and larger. In the case of smaller tariffs, interest rate cuts may be carried out in the second half of the year. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary.
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