The US dollar fell to the 100 mark, and gold continued to set new historical highs!

On April 11, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.29. On Thursday, the US dollar index continued to decline during the day, falling by more than 2% at one point, reaching near the 100 mark, and finally closed down 1.97% to 100.93. Non-US currencies rose sharply, with the Swiss franc rising nearly 4%, the euro and yen rising more than 2%, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.36%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.883%, which is more sensitive to monetary policy. Spot gold continued to rise by more than 3% during the day and refreshed its all-time high above $3,170, and finally closed up 3.11% at $3,175.77 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.67% to $31.20 per ounce. In early Friday, gold refreshed its all-time high above $3,180. The oil erased most of Wednesday's gains as investors reassessed plans to suspend U.S. tariffs. WTI crude oil continued to rise during the day and fell below the $60 mark again, finally closing down 3.83% to $59.83 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 3.3% to $63.28 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100.29. It fell further as it failed to maintain rebound momentum earlier this week. The move comes as new tariffs confirmed by the White House raise the effective tax rate for Chinese imports to an astonishing 145%. Federal Reserve officials, including Jeff Schmid and Lori Logan, warned that these trade actions could exacerbate inflation and labor market dynamics. From a technical point of view, the US dollar indexClosed below support level 101.70–101.90 and is moving towards the next support level 100.20–100.40. RSI is close to oversold areas, but there is enough room for additional downward momentum in the short term.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1336. The euro/dollar surged to its highest buying order in nearly two years on Thursday, breaking through for the first time and closing above the 1.1200 mark, hitting a 21-month high. Market tensions continued to ease after the Trump administration gave up its own tariffs at the last moment, resulting in a general weakening of US dollar liquidity. Technically, the EUR/USD is trying to close above resistance at 1.1185–1.1200. If this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level in the range of 1.1275–1.1290.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3028. The pound/dollar rose again on Thursday, backed by a general weakening of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation cooled faster than expected. Coupled with the weakening of risk appetite caused by the Trump administration's ever-changing tariff policies, the dollar's strength generally declined, providing the pound with an opportunity to rebound from recent losses. Technically, breaking through the resistance level 1.2980–1.3000 will push the GBP/USD to the next resistance level 1.3080–1.3100.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3210.89. , hit another historical high. The weakening of the US dollar and the escalating trade war between the US (US) and China have provided some support for this precious metal, with gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices fell unexpectedly in March, but inflation risks tilted upward as U.S. President Donald Trump stepped up tariffs on China. The U.S. CPI inflation rate fell to 2.4% in March from 2.8% in February. This figure is lower than market expectations of 2.6%.

Technical: A more important potential target is to rise to around $3199 to $3205. Since the market appears to be identifying the top channel line, it can be focused on with the higher target area. Following the target price of $3205 is 323Higher target price of $2 and $3250.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 59.32. International oil prices fell sharply, with a single-day decline of nearly US$3 per barrel, basically giving up all the gains in the previous trading day. Investors reassess the actual impact of the US "tariff suspension" measures while turning their focus to the continued escalation of the US-China trade war.

Technical: WTI crude oil closed below $60.00, and it will move towards the nearest support level $57.50 – $58.00.

Forex market trading reminder on April 11, 2025

14:00 Germany's March CPI monthly rate final value

14:00 UK's February three-month GDP monthly rate

14:00 UK's February manufacturing output monthly rate

14:00 UK's February industrial output monthly rate

14:00 UK's February seasonally adjusted commodity trade account

15:00 Switzerland's March consumer confidence index

17:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech

17:45 p>

20:30 US March PPI annual rate

20:30 US March PPI monthly rate

22:00 US April one-year inflation rate expected initial value

22:00 US April Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value

22:00 US April Mosalem delivered a speech

23:00 US Federal Reserve Williams delivered a speech

The next day 01:00 US day till the total number of oil drilling rigs from the United States to April 11

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