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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The British pound has risen for the seventh consecutive day, with a target of 1.3425". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex APP News - On Wednesday (April 16), the pound/dollar exchange rate rose for the seventh consecutive trading day, breaking through 1.3290 intraday, setting a new high in seven months. UK inflation data were lower than expected, strengthening market expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month. Data from the UK's National Statistics Office today showed that overall inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and slightly below the expected 2.7%. The core inflation rate excluding common volatility factors such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also fell slightly to 3.4%, down from 3.5% the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong upward trend as the US dollar index has fallen sharply. The gain continued after relatively strong employment data were released in the UK on Tuesday. Today's inflation data below expectations did not have a significant impact on the rise in the pound. The dollar weakened and the pound strengthened inflationary pressure cooled for the second consecutive month, providing the Bank of England with a much-needed breathing space. The rise in the pound is not only due to domestic data, but also related to the trend of the US dollar. As U.S. inflation cools down and Trump's tariff threats have exacerbated market uneasiness, demand for the dollar fluctuates. Coupled with the increasing belief that the Bank of England could cut interest rates as early as May 8, creating favorable conditions for a stronger pound. Inflation is down, and markets strongly expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates at 4.5% at its last meeting in March, as policymakers need to weigh between high inflation and uncertainty in global trade (at times when tariffs are not available). But as the inflation trend is now beginning to decline and the uncertainty in the macro economy has eased slightly, the market strongly expects a rate cut. Netherlands InternationalJames Smith, a British economist at the Group (ING), believes that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times this year, the next time is in May. EUR/GBP is giving up some of the gains from last week, but the big bull market trend of the EUR/USD suggests that EUR/GBP can find some support around 0.85 and may return to 0.86 in the coming months. The GBP/USD is expected to reach its last year's high of 1.3430 due to the weakness of the dollar. Currently, traders are cheering for the resilience of the pound, with seven consecutive positive lines, which is quite good for the pound, which has repeatedly reversed this year. The GBP/USD exchange rate will next react to U.S. retail sales data to be released at 20:30 Beijing time, which will provide more information on the health of the U.S. economy before Trump imposes tariffs. Economists expect the data will show a slight decline in retail sales in March. At 21:15 Beijing time tonight, the United States will also release the latest industrial production and manufacturing production data. Both figures are expected to perform weakly as market participants await Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy.
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