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The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark

Post time: 2025-04-14 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The United States once suspended tariffs on some commodity prices, and the US dollar once fell below the 100 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On April 14, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.63. Last Friday, the US dollar index continued to weaken the dollar as a safe haven due to the Trump administration's repeated recurrence on import tariffs, shaking investors' confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven, the US dollar index continued to weaken during the day, falling below the $100 mark, and finally closed down 1.08% to 99.84. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.494%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.977%. Spot gold hit a new high, refreshing its all-time high to $3,245, and finally closing up 1.95% to $3,237.83 per ounce. Spot silver rose strongly during the day and finally closed up 3.42% at $32.26 per ounce. As the US Secretary of Energy said that the United States could block Iran's oil exports, the two oils rebounded, WTI crude oil continued to rise during the US session, returning to above the $60 mark, and finally closed up 2.15% to $60.96/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.49% to $64.23/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.63. The U.S. dollar index continued to decline in trading last Friday, falling to nearly 100 areas, after hitting a three-year low earlier in the day. The downward trend reflects a widespread deterioration in investor confidence as the latest data and central bank comments paint a dark outlook for the U.S. economy. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in April, while the producer price index was lower than expected, further exacerbating market deflation concerns. Several Fed officials noted that rising inflation expectations pose risks, despite the short-term economyData suggests demand is weakening. From a technical point of view, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 100.20–100.40. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level, which is in the range of 101.70–101.90.

The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1375. Hovered around 1.1360 after rising in the first two trading days. The pair appreciated as the dollar weakened, and the dollar was under pressure amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, rekindling concerns about a global recession. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move to the next support level, i.e. the range of 1.1185–1.1200.

The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3090. U.S. President Donald Trump decided to suspend full reciprocity tariffs for 90 days last week, and the initial market reaction proved short-lived as concerns about a U.S. recession amid the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. China's 84% ​​tariff on U.S. goods came into effect on Thursday, while Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. These developments have weakened confidence in the U.S. economy, given that the U.S. still imports several irreplaceable materials from China. This in turn drags the U.S. dollar index tracking the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies to its lowest level since April 2022 and continues to be a tailwind for the GBP/U.S. currency pair. Technically, the closest support for GBP/USD is at 1.2980–1.3000. A break below 1.2980 level will push the GBP/USD toward 50MA1.2923.

The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3217.57. Gold fell, breaking a record three-day record high of $3,245 on Friday. Safe-haven flows appear to be eased as traders are delighted by the turnaround on Wall Street on Friday and some positive news about the U.S.-China tariff war, temporarily alleviating bullish pressure on gold prices.

The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark(图4)

Technical: Gold prices closed at historical highs last week, up more than 6.5%, and the outlook is still bullish. Rising inflation risks, weakening the dollar and growing demand from central banks continue to support the rising momentum of gold prices. Unless trade tensions are effectively resolved, or the market is for U.S. financeConfidence in political policies will be restored, otherwise demand for gold may continue.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 61.05. International oil prices have surged sharply by more than $1 as U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. could cut off Iran's crude oil exports across the board to force Iran to concessions on its nuclear program. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its global economic growth forecast on Thursday and warned that tariffs could hit oil prices hard. The agency also lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the United States and globally this year and next year.

The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark(图5)

Technical: From a technical point of view, the tone of the market this week will depend on traders' reaction to the $63.70 turn. However, overall long-term trends are expected to remain down until buyers can break through the 52-week moving average of $70.08. This suggests that traders may maintain a “sell rebound” pattern.

Forex market trading reminder on April 14, 2025

①To be determined China's March trade account

②To be determined OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report

③To be determined President Xi Jinping pays a state visit to Vietnam

④To be determined US President Trump announces semiconductor tariff details

⑤10:00 State Information Office holds a press conference on imports and exports in the first quarter

⑥20:30 Canada's February wholesale sales monthly rate

⑦23:00 US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations in March

⑧The next day, the Federal Reserve Barkin made a speech on the fog of the economy"

⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve Hack made a speech on the role played by the Federal Reserve

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